![]() Each of these reasons may involve claims of secret intentions or conspiracy theories. ![]() Reasons for these reactions include distrust in the COVID-19 vaccine that was developed rapidly, lack of trust in governing entities and unrealistic optimism (UO). The COVID-19 vaccination campaign led to hesitancy, deferment and un-resolving resistance of certain groups or individuals worldwide. None of the authors have any conflicts of interest regarding this paper. Senate House, London, Funded by the Templeton Foundation. Portions of this paper were presented at the Special topics conference on Optimism: Its Nature, Causes, and Effects. ![]() Thus, although cross-sectional studies might provide an initial test of the relationship between Acknowledgements Cross-sectional correlational studies are limited by the potential for reverse causality and the third variable problem. First, to fully investigate the role of unrealistic optimism in any outcome, researchers must collect longitudinal or experimental data. Our reflections on how we evaluate the consequences of unrealistic optimism lead us to make several recommendations for future research. The second challenge Recommendations for future research The first challenge we discussed is relevant to unrealistic comparative optimism at the group level, but not to other forms of unrealistic optimism. Others represent methodological conundrums that require extensive planning and may be insurmountable with regard to some forms of unrealistic optimism and some outcomes. Some of these challenges are easy to address moving forward. We have identified several challenges to understanding the consequences of unrealistic optimism. Challenges to assessing the consequences of unrealistic optimism Although most investigators have theorized about the potential harm of unrealistic optimism, some have argued that unrealistic optimism may be beneficial. The presumed consequences of unrealistic optimismĬountless researchers have speculated about the consequences of unrealistic optimism, so much so that a discussion of the potential consequences appears to be an obligatory feature of any paper investigating unrealistic optimism. A recent review noted two broad categories of unrealistic optimism: unrealistic absolute optimism and unrealistic comparative optimism (Shepperd, Klein, Waters, & Weinstein, 2013). ![]() Indeed, one must first understand how researchers operationalize unrealistic optimism to comprehend the difficulties researchers face in examining its consequences. Part of the challenge in understanding the consequences of unrealistic optimism is that researchers have used the term to describe multiple phenomena. Section snippets Operationalizing unrealistic optimism and its consequences The fourth section offers recommendations for researchers who wish to examine the consequences of unrealistic optimism. The third section evaluates the challenges to examining consequences of unrealistic optimism, particularly unrealistic comparative optimism. The second section explores possible consequences of unrealistic optimism, including reasons to expect that unrealistic optimism can be both harmful and beneficial. The first section distinguishes between two operations of unrealistic optimism (i.e., absolute and comparative unrealistic optimism). Rather, we examine how researchers typically evaluate unrealistic optimism and its consequences, discuss potential methodological roadblocks to investigating such consequences, and offer possible paths for future investigations. We devote little space here to reviewing the findings of studies that aimed to examine the consequences of unrealistic optimism, to discussing other forms of optimism, or to risk perceptions more generally. The present article represents a methodological review and critique of research examining the consequences of unrealistic optimism. The paucity of studies may have occurred because of early evidence demonstrating the difficulty of reducing unrealistic optimism (Weinstein & Klein, 1995). Nevertheless, precious few papers have actually investigated the consequences of unrealistic optimism (see Dillard et al., 2009, Hevey et al., 2014 for notable exceptions). For example, unrealistic optimism about health outcomes could lead people to engage in risky behavior or fail to take adequate precautions. Researchers’ interest in unrealistic optimism likely stems, at least in part, from its presumed consequences. Research on unrealistic optimism appears in a variety of disciplines including psychology, economics, business, medicine, and philosophy. Unrealistic optimism-expecting future outcomes that are better than is reasonably likely-has received enormous attention over the last four decades, with over 1000 articles published on the topic since the first publication on the topic by Weinstein (1980).
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